2023 Market Outlook
January 18, 2023
The world’s top banks have come out with their Global Market Outlooks for 2023. The databahn research team have compiled highlights from these economic outlook reports, and the overall picture is not all doom & gloom.
Will there be a recession in 2023?
BlackRock declares a recession is foretold, BNP Paribas says the global economy is on the brink of recession, and Wells Fargo expects a recession in early 2023.
Are the Eurozone and the UK in a recession?
Goldman Sachs thinks the US should narrowly avoid a recession and that the Euro area and the UK are probably in recession already. HSBC agrees that the Eurozone and UK are in recession, and adds that US growth is well below normal, and China’s 2023 recovery will likely be shallow. Credit Suisse echoes this sentiment by stating that the Eurozone and UK have slipped into recession, and that these economies should bottom out by mid-2023 and begin a very slow and weak recovery. Citigroup expects a mild recession in the US and says regions such as the eurozone will be more heavily impacted.
Is China in a Growth Recession?
Credit Suisse wrote in their 2023 Economic Outlooks that China is in a growth recession.
A growth recession occurs when there are more job being lost than being added. It also occurs when an economy experiences below average GDP growth for an extended period of time.
Will the global economy recover in 2023? And, what kind of growth can be expected?
Barclays cuts to the chase and states that 2023 may well be one of the slowest years for global growth in decades and analysts expect the world to grow at 1.7% next year. Goldman Sachs concurs almost exactly by expecting global growth of just 1.8% in 2023.
Will the stock market crash in 2023?
Morgan Stanley offers a more dire view: in early 2023, earnings will collapse, bringing the stock market down with them.
Will high inflation continue in 2023?
JPMorgan offers the one bright spot that inflation should start to moderate as the economy slows.
What will there continue to be high inflation in the Eurozone and Germany?
Deutsche Bank is not as optimistic on the inflation front, however, as the bank estimates consumer price inflation of 8.9% in Germany, 8.4% in the Eurozone and 8.2% in the U.S. for full year 2022. The German bank adds that inflation will still be well above the targets set by the central banks in Europe and the U.S. in 2023.
Will the Federal Reserve increase interest rates in 2023?
Regarding the Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon says that the Fed is likely to hike and hold interest rates due to elevated inflation in the services sector. ING says that US markets doubt the Fed’s intent.
Will we continue to see high inflation and recession in 2023?
Apollo Global Management says the central themes of 2022—namely high inflation, potential economic recession, and dislocated asset prices—are expected to continue to be with us as we head into 2023.
Will the market recover in 2023?
According to the 14 Market Outlook reports we studied from the major global banks, none of them are predicting a recovery in 2023.
Would you like to learn more about what the global banks are predicting for the global markets in 2023?